5 Minute Self Forecasting

Our 5-minute self-forecasting service helps renewable energy generators minimise costly Frequency Performance Payments (FPP) through accurate dispatch predictions.

We have been helping generators in the NEM submit forecasts for over five years, previously under Causer Pays, and now under the FPP framework.

The way we do this:

FPP Simulation

Full replication of AEMO’s 13-step calculation engine

Custom Connectors

Zero-touch data integration & submission

Automated Submission

Real-time model execution and automated submission

The FPP Challenge

Under the Frequency Performance Payments (FPP) framework, generators are charged based on their contribution to frequency deviations. Poor forecasting doesn’t just mean missed revenue, it means active financial penalties.

In the NEM, frequency is measured every 4 seconds. If your actual generation deviates from your forecast in a way that hinders grid frequency recovery, you pay. If you help, you get paid. The difference between using the standard AWEFS/ASEFS forecast and a tuned self-forecast can materially impact your bottom line.

Our Solution

AEMO-Replica FPP Engine

We don’t just guess at improvements; we prove them. We have built a complete replica of AEMO’s FPP calculation engine. Our model ingests raw 4-second SCADA data and runs it through the exact same logic as AEMO.

13-Step Pipeline

Handles interpolation, constraint flags, deviation calculations, and contribution factors exactly like AEMO.

Scenario Analysis

Re-run history to simulate what would have happened and quantify exact dollar savings.

Strategic Tuning

Tune forecasting logic specifically to minimise financial penalties under FPP logic.

Custom Connectors

We understand that every site is different. You shouldn’t have to change your systems to fit ours. We build custom connectors to retrieve your site’s data—whether via SCADA historian, API, or secure file drop.

Automated Retrieval

We pull the necessary telemetry automatically from your preferred source.

Seamless Submission

Our system submits 5-minute self-forecasts directly to AEMO on your behalf.

High Reliability

Built on robust, redundant infrastructure to ensure industry leading SLAs.

Automated Submission

We run a sophisticated model on our secure servers that takes your telemetry as input and determines the optimal forecast to submit.

Real-Time Execution

Our model runs in realtime as it receives your telemetry, ensuring the best possible submission is made for each dispatch interval.

Grid-Aware Logic

We predict the forecast that minimises your FPP liability based on our understanding of the grid at that time.

Closed Loop

We monitor the entire system, resolving issues and notifying you of any site connectivity problems.

This fully automated process ensures your forecasts are always optimised for the current market conditions, delivering results without adding to your operational workload.

Schedule a Simulation Today

Before you commit, we provide a comprehensive FPP Impact Assessment. We take a sample of your historical data and use our FPP simulation to indicate how our submission strategy would have performed.

The report details:

Historical Liability

What you actually paid in FPP charges.

Simulated Liability

What you would have paid with our forecasts.

Net Savings

The direct financial benefit demonstrated by the simulation.

NEMWEB Data Insights